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Practical Speculation, by Victor Niederhoffer, Laurel Kenner
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The follow-up to Victor Niederhoffer's critically and commercially acclaimed book The Education of a Speculator has finally arrived. Practical Speculation continues the story of a true market legend who ran a hugely successful futures trading firm that had annual returns of over thirty percent until unforeseen losses forced him to close operations. Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, Niederhoffer returned to the world of trading stocks, futures, and options, with a new colleague and a new approach and found success. Order your copy of this compelling story of risk and survival today.
- Sales Rank: #642665 in Books
- Published on: 2005-01-21
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.95" h x 1.10" w x 6.00" l, .94 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 400 pages
Review
". . . the best trading book of the young millenium. . . offers more trading 'truth' than a dozen typical market books combined. It's in a league of it's own." (Active Trader magazine)
At last, some modest proof of what some of us have long suspected - beware of lords on boards. Authors Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner* studied the relationship between stock returns and the number of board members with titles in the 50 largest companies by market value in the FTSE 100. Over a five year period, the more titles on the board, the worse the performance of the shares.
Niederhoffer and Kenner even invented a valuation indicator, the earnings/lords ratio, dividing the earnings per share by the number of titles in the boardroom. At the time they did the study, Powergen, with just one lord, looked the most attractive stock on this basis.
The finding raises the obvious question of causality. As the authors write: "Was it the lords who caused the lackluster performance or the lackluster performance that prompted the companies to use lords as window-dressing?"
That comment, however, suggests a possible American misunderstanding of the British honors system. The presence of titles on UK boards does not simply indicate the lingering influence of the ancient British aristocracy. Charities may still want to recruit Lord Ponsonby-Snodgrass just to make the notepaper look respectable; boards of FTSE 100 companies don't really need to do so.
Instead, the preponderance of titles shows the tendency for the honours system to reward people for business success. Rise to the top of a FTSE 100 company and you can be pretty sure a gong is heading your way, especially if you have the foresight to make some political donations.
The "lords on boards" effect may thus be merely another indication of the old rule of "reversion to the mean". Executives get awarded titles when profits are strong and the share price is rising, not in the aftermath of profit warnings and failed acquisitions. Since all companies eventually suffer some sort of bad news, the disasters are more likely to occur after the honours are awarded. When the queen brings the sword down on an executive's shoulder, the blade of Damocles may not be far behind it. *Practical Speculation, published by John Wiley & Sons (The Financial Times, June 4, 2003)
"...At last, some modest proof of what some of us have long suspected - beware of lords on boards..." (Financial Times, 3 June 2003)
"...will enable the investor to make independent decisions about their investments with confidence..." (Portfolio International, June 2003)
"...shows how far pension fund figures are out of line with long -term share market expectation..." (Liverpool Daily Post, 6 August 2003)
"Niederhoffer and Kenner dispense pearls of wisdom for both the seasoned professional and the novice about investing and much more. Though you may not agree with all that they write – I can’t imagine anyone would – they will compel you to think and very often, cause you to smile." --Mark P. Kritzman
I consider Victor Neiderhoffer's highly entertaining Practical Speculation to be a modern classic. In Practical Speculation, Neiderhoffer explores a wide range of fascinating topics ranging from the wisdom of value investing to the implications of a company slapping its name on a shiny new stadium. - Street.com
Review
"Niederhoffer and Kenner dispense pearls of wisdom for both the seasoned professional and the novice about investing and much more. Though you may not agree with all that they write – I can’t imagine anyone would – they will compel you to think and very often, cause you to smile." --Mark P. Kritzman
From the Publisher
"Niederhoffer and Kenner dispense pearls of wisdom for both the seasoned professional and the novice about investing and much more. Though you may not agree with all that they write – I can’t imagine anyone would – they will compel you to think and very often, cause you to smile." --Mark P. Kritzman
Most helpful customer reviews
11 of 15 people found the following review helpful.
Great book for a right purpose
By Amazon Customer
Let's say you want to become a trader. Typically you go through a few stages.
1. You learn some basics about markets, stocks etc. You just know they exist.
2. Then you learn how to make transactions, pay taxes etc.
3. Usually somewhere here you think you're ready. So you start betting money and likely lose. A lot of people will drop off after that.
4. Now you've realized that you have to have a strategy. And this is the most difficult part. You need an advice. And there are plenty of people offering some "time proven" strategies. Ok, most of them don't work.
5. At this point you are ready for this book. It doesn't teach you basics, doesn't give you a how to steps to get rich quickly. Instead it shows you how really great traders make their decisions.
What is really great about this books is the timeframe it is based on. There are a lot of "old classics" or "pre bubble" books, they have a lot of good points, but they look disconnected from the internet crash and 9/11 era. The author clearly lives in our time and speaks about the markets now.
About the author. Yes, Niederhoffer ran his fund into ground once. A lot of people like to point that out. How many of you had car accidents? Doesn't mean you can drive anymore? His trading performace before and after that event were spectacular and if you read this book, you'll realize it was not a matter of luck.
67 of 80 people found the following review helpful.
You'll never see the whole picture without knowledge.....
By Richard L. Bubb II
by Rich Bubb, 6/1/3
During and after reading Practical Speculation, I was struck by many emotions. In other words, almost everything I knew and had been previously told about investing was stripped down to the simple truth and laid bare for examination. And the picture was not pretty.
Initially, I felt trepidation and felt that the journey I was going to be Learning-Through would be formidable. In context it was. In content it was. In level of understanding presented by the authors, it couldn't have been simpler. But is that not the hallmark of superior authors intending to cultivate knowledge in their readers? (BTW: Laurel and Victor also write a weekly column on moneycentral.com titled: The Speculator.)
After shredding sycophantic trading and investing voodoo and hoodoo practiced by the most hyped and ballyhooed Wall Street has to offer, I am eternally in their debt for their opening a window through which one can see the reality of investing and the Market. Not investing without a hope of making a return, not investing without a hope of comprehensibility, and not investing based on hocus-pocus bs. You can easily get that type and level of impostor-knowledge in ill thought out books, websites, and seminars almost anywhere these days. For instance, their chapter on Earning Propaganda delineates in a straightforward manner what works, with the data to back it up, on page after eye opening page (sources always included for those so inclined to do their own checking, and you are welcome to do so. And get into the habit of checking, you'll wonder how you stumbled along without it after a while!). The chapter on what works, and what does not, regarding Technical Analysis lays bare the truths to look at, and demystifies TA to such a degree, it is amazing to me that many Wall Street charlatans are not tarred and feathered by their now severely poorer followers.
At one point I remember I was thinking, "OK, so what does work?" That was so succinctly answered on page 105ff that I started memorizing. No, I won't tell you what it is. Read it for yourself. You were just told where the gold is, mine it yourself.
The beauty of this volume of knowledge is summed up not at the end of the book, but at the end of nearly every convention shattering chapter. Every shattered myth, bar none, is exposed and debunked; illuminated with evidence, data, facts, intelligence, and honesty.
When I was starting "The Finale" chapter, I had an intuitive sense I wouldn't be reading a generalized summation of everything previously explained. I did not. Taking it to another level sounds cliche, but the authors succeeded exponentially to redefine Finale. If the message were musical notes, the resulting crescendo and lucidity of vision are symphonic. For instance, there is an email from "the indefatigable Dr. Brett" that is [IMHO] Beyond Brilliance (see page 350-351) on "Revisiting Complexity in Trading Systems." You cannot find this level of genius anywhere all in one text, at any price. And note the email title begins with "Revisiting", as in "go there again". [One wonders what the Initial Visit was like?]
With chapter titles like: How to Avoid Spurious Correlations; The Future of Returns; The Periodic Table of Investing; Market Thermodynamics (one of my favorites); and News Flash: Computer Writes Stock Market Story, and others throughout, the buyer of this book has nothing to fear. Why, there right on the back cover is a money back guarantee by the publisher of Bottom Line Personal. Checkout "", then "Look Inside This Book!" on this [Amazon's website], then look at middle of pic of back cover. Seen one of those on ANY OTHER book on investing lately? Heard that at an investing seminar lately? Read that anywhere on a subscription service investment website lately?
Disclaimer: I am NOT a stock market professional. Just a Pedestrian Investor, a very appreciative one.
Thanks Laurel & Vic!
24 of 35 people found the following review helpful.
Disappointing, Self Serving Book
By H. Abboud
"What a waste of my time". That was the thought that crossed my mind as I labored to finish the book.
The -only- reason I bought this book is because it was recommended by Gary B. Smith, a technical trading columnist at TheStreet.com/Realmoney.com for whom I have great respect. But after reading it, I felt that I was none the wiser.
The book makes some good points. The chapter on Abel Abelson, the famous permabear in Barron's, is a good read and a good example of someone failing to see the trend (permabulls aren't any better, mind you, but there is no example of that in this book). And the authors' emphasis on backtesting (instead of relying on a hunch) is commendable -- up to a point.
But the authors spend way too much time defending their own record. And backtesting has its own limits. IMHO, the market is all about emotion; backtesting will not always capture this.
They authors are also dismissive of technical trading, fundamental analysis, and P/E ratios! Gimme a break, Vic. Are you saying nothing works except ValueLine?! I *know* they do because I have increased my capital nine fold in four years using these very tools. I was hoping that this book will help me become a better trader and a better investor, but I am none the wiser for reading it.
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